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Old 01-09-2023, 09:50 AM   #1
wegone
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The lots are plugged.....

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE.......here is looking forward to lots of healthy and happy miles along our highways.

Just completed almost 4K trip to the kids for the holidays, down in SoCal, trailer-less.

Traffic was extremely light going both ways along Interstate 5 and 99.
Gas prices were all over the place with Oregon by far the best, California the worse.
However, Nothern California was lots cheaper than Southern California, not sure why.
Saw unleaded for as low as 3.25 to 4.99 in California.
Diesel was still 4 to 5 bucks plus EVERYWHERE.

Passed many, many RV lots, they are PLUGGED with units, hundreds and hundreds of them packed so tight it seems it might take days to move one if you found one to your liking jammed inside that tangle and mess.
Also, I noticed they park these units with slides open, for how long, goodness that seems a bad idea to me.

Also, lots of new trucks on all of the major brands sitting on lots.

I think it's safe to say change is coming to the RV market if this is any indicator.

BTW, coming home after 3 weeks down there you could see the difference in the water reservoirs and lakes, they have risen substantially and should make for some good camping this year, WHICH, is one trip we already booked in Northen California meeting the kids in their trailer in early June
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Old 01-09-2023, 10:54 AM   #2
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Do you think California RV and truck availability is typical of everywhere? I haven't gone by an RV or truck lot for a long time... just curious.
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Old 01-09-2023, 11:16 AM   #3
wegone
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Do you think California RV and truck availability is typical of everywhere? I haven't gone by an RV or truck lot for a long time... just curious.
Not sure, however here in Washington I have noticed lots are full and they are posting "sale" pricing, which has been substantial on some rigs.

Oregon and California both appeared to these eyes as over-stocked, with California being more so.

Also, compared to last year when we traveled, we noticed the lumber yards and lumber product businesses were way down. Last year raw logs were stacked to high heaven, as was processed lumber, plywood, trusses, etc, waiting to ship. I would "guess" that it has been reduced by more than 50% this year.
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Old 01-09-2023, 11:39 AM   #4
JRTJH
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I'm certainly no "statistical expert" but here's the data I could find on the RV industry's "units shipped" for 2021 and 2022.

In 2021, RVIA reported that the industry "shipped 600,240 units to wholesale dealers".

In 2022. RVIA reported: "Through November 2022, RV shipments total 472,691, down 15.6% compared with the first 11 months of 2021." The same article reported: "RVIA’s November 2022 survey of manufacturers determined total RV shipments were 24,445 units, a decrease of 50.4% compared with the record 49,285 units shipped in November 2021."

So, through November, 2022, wholesale shipments were down around 125,000 units and November 2022 shipments were down 50% less than the 2021 November shipments. That probably equates to a pretty DISMAL December 2022 expected shipment total.

That would "give me the hunch" that the industry produced around 140,000 units fewer in 2022 than in 2021.

So, to me, it seems that in 2021, there were very few new units on dealer lots, probably because people were buying them as fast as the dealers could get them.

Now, in 2022, the "lots are full of RV's". That means (IMO) one of two things:

1. People stopped buying RV's and the manufacturers are shipping them to dealers where people aren't shopping. OR:

2. What you're seeing on the dealer lots is a combination of new and used RV as people are getting rid of RV's they can't afford/are not using like they anticipated and the dealers aren't seeing "new buyers who want what's on their lot".... Why buyers don't want what's available is anybody's guess, but I'd suspect that the economy and buyer's expectations that things aren't looking better in their future are a major block to any "new purchase of a major item"....

2021 RVIA Report: https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/r...ious-record-19

2022 RVIA Report: https://www.rvnews.com/2022-rvia-who...le%20shipments.
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Old 01-09-2023, 11:50 AM   #5
wegone
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Originally Posted by JRTJH View Post
I'm certainly no "statistical expert" but here's the data I could find on the RV industry's "units shipped" for 2021 and 2022.

In 2021, RVIA reported that the industry "shipped 600,240 units to wholesale dealers".

In 2022. RVIA reported: "Through November 2022, RV shipments total 472,691, down 15.6% compared with the first 11 months of 2021." The same article reported: "RVIA’s November 2022 survey of manufacturers determined total RV shipments were 24,445 units, a decrease of 50.4% compared with the record 49,285 units shipped in November 2021."

So, through November, 2022, wholesale shipments were down around 125,000 units and November 2022 shipments were down 50% less than the 2021 November shipments. That probably equates to a pretty DISMAL December 2022 expected shipment total.

That would "give me the hunch" that the industry produced around 140,000 units fewer in 2022 than in 2021.

So, to me, it seems that in 2021, there were very few new units on dealer lots, probably because people were buying them as fast as the dealers could get them.

Now, in 2022, the "lots are full of RV's". That means (IMO) one of two things:

1. People stopped buying RV's and the manufacturers are shipping them to dealers where people aren't shopping. OR:

2. What you're seeing on the dealer lots is a combination of new and used RV as people are getting rid of RV's they can't afford/are not using like they anticipated and the dealers aren't seeing "new buyers who want what's on their lot".... Why buyers don't want what's available is anybody's guess, but I'd suspect that the economy and buyer's expectations that things aren't looking better in their future are a major block to any "new purchase of a major item"....

2021 RVIA Report: https://www.rvia.org/news-insights/r...ious-record-19

2022 RVIA Report: https://www.rvnews.com/2022-rvia-who...le%20shipments.
Most seemed new, and the independent smaller lots had used, but even that seemed slim pickings, not sure why.

Now on a "positive" note I did see lots of new commercial building still taking place, with commercial development, warehousing and tract housing, etc, stilling going strong, and California is a long way away from becoming a ghost state, as it too seemed pretty strong with lots of shoppers, traffic, etc...
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Old 01-09-2023, 01:11 PM   #6
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My wife use to drive me nuts. She use to take her job way too serious and she'd get horribly upset and all yanked out of joint when things didn't go right, or things changed in different directions than expected, or "some" people did some really dumb things.

I repeated told her, "Dear, you got to learn to be like a fishing bobber! You know, the bobber always floats on top of the water, even when waves come along. It may temporarily go under a wave, but it always bounces back to the top. Even when a fish pulls the bobber under, it ALWAYS eventually comes back up to the top and continues to foat! You need to approach your job the same way. Be a bobber! When you feel things are beginning to pull you under, or that wave comes along and you feel you are getting blow over, just go with the flow and rise above it!"

Well, it took her many more years, but she finally "got it!" She's been working for the same company for a long, long time now. Most of "those" people she had "those" conflicts with are now gone! And she's till there .... that little bobber bouncing in the waters of change.

So you know ... RV and automobile lots full or empty? Economy up or down? Pandemic or post-pandemic fall out and aftermath? Rising and falling fuel prices? .... Everything is like those waves on the lake. Be the bobber and don't worry about what the rest of the world is experiencing. All that matters is ... are YOU still floating, bouncing up out of all this insane craziness happing in our world today? Or have you sunk to the bottom? Hopefully, you are the bobber's of life!
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Old 01-09-2023, 01:20 PM   #7
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David,

Your philosophy on "bobbers" is good advice, as long as it's the waves and the fish you're anticipating to affect how well you float.

But, add a couple of kids with BB guns trying to sink you, a couple of water skiers "zooming over you" and the propeller from the boat pulling them getting tangled in "your line to the hook" and, well, things "outside your perspective or control" can sink you faster than you can repair your "self imposed leaks"....

Just sayin' .....
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Old 01-09-2023, 03:05 PM   #8
wegone
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Mercy buddy........

Not sure how you swerved into that lane by my post

But since you did, a wise frontiersman never waits until winter to put up the firewood he'll need to get through to another new year.

Now I reckon I can say you can nibble on that until your bobber bobs
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