I would still maintain that it was not an arcing type of fault due to the thermal degradation of the insulation. Not enough heat would be produced.
To quote from the sources you hyperlinked:
My question is this why does the National Electrical Code require these expensive devices to be installed in bedrooms of new houses, when they WILL NOT TRIP ON A SERIES ARC FAULT? The authors believe that broken wires and loose connections are a common cause of electrical failure which results in fire, and Manufacturer ‘B’ says that their AFCI will trip if these events occur (and we have proven that they will not trip).
AFCIs cannot detect a "glowing" arc. A high-resistance connection through a conductor sometimes can reach conditions that will ignite adjacent combustible material, and AFCIs will not prevent this.
FWIW - I am a degreed Electrical Engineer, licensed Professional Engineer in my state, have 30 years of experience and my specialty is performed arc flash hazard analysis and protection/coordination studies.
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