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Old 05-15-2022, 10:15 AM   #1
jsb5717
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Diesel Shortage Coming?

OK, I'm not a fear monger and don't pay much attention to sensationalized news. But with all of our collective planned travels, especially into the summer months, this could be a big deal.

Has anyone else been hearing about projected shortages, rationing, and skyrocketing diesel prices?
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Old 05-15-2022, 10:43 AM   #2
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I heard, on CNBC I think, that diesel prices will go much higher. No reason given. Assuming higher demand. I would take a WAG and wonder if Mexico and China are expected to want more diesel and be willing to pay whatever. Mexico can't manage to keep their refineries running and bought Shell refineries.
My Shell refinery, Deer Park/Houston, was configured for diesel and pushed a lot of it out. The Mexican president is under a lot of pressure to get fuel to Mexico.
If the US economy ramps up so will demand.
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Old 05-15-2022, 12:13 PM   #3
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Damn, just paid $5.49 with $0.20 discount! Normal price $5.69, we should not depend on Russian oil!

NO EDIT! Regular gas is $4.79 to $4.99 here west of Portland!
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Old 05-15-2022, 12:27 PM   #4
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I have Illinois trip coming up soon I’ll be all right for that trip. The Sturgis trip this August has me a bit concerned. I topped off with 76 gallons of diesel last weekend at $.40 a gallon less then home .
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Old 05-15-2022, 04:07 PM   #5
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Was just reading a news arrival and they’re talking about rationing diesel in some places. Around my area it is 5.50 and everyday it’s going up. Been a few stations that have run out and said their delivery has been delayed because of shortages.
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Old 05-15-2022, 05:18 PM   #6
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This is fuel in my town today. Diesel is insane. Prices are scaring off our travel companions for our planned summer excursions, but we budgeted for it so we are pressing on.
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Old 05-15-2022, 05:32 PM   #7
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Aux tank is starting to look better and better. Used to have one when I transported, I’m thinking it’s time for another one. Creates a lot of flexibility when traveling
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Old 05-16-2022, 04:06 AM   #8
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"I'm not a fear monger and don't pay much attention to sensationalized news. But...."
Now that's funny, I don't care who you are.
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Old 05-16-2022, 04:10 AM   #9
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This morning Goldman Sachs is predicting crude oil at $125 with $150 very possible.
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Old 05-16-2022, 04:13 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bsmith0404 View Post
Aux tank is starting to look better and better. Used to have one when I transported, I’m thinking it’s time for another one. Creates a lot of flexibility when traveling
Yep, nothing like pouring diesel into your truck from a 5 gallon can on the side of I-40.
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Old 05-16-2022, 04:21 AM   #11
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Personally this makes no sense to me. We refine oil to make fuel. My understanding is gasoline takes more refining but diesel is more? Back in the 80s I remember diesel be a significantly lower than regular gas....probably has to do with refinery capacity/delivery mechanisms but it makes no sense (at least to me).


The other item is that we are through a heating season but this is the same fuel used in many parts of the country to heat houses. (just with a dye in it).
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Old 05-16-2022, 04:25 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NH_Bulldog View Post
This is fuel in my town today. Diesel is insane. Prices are scaring off our travel companions for our planned summer excursions, but we budgeted for it so we are pressing on.
$6.15 for diesel would scare me off.
I have a 2,000 mile round trip planned in August. Ticket and camp spot is paid for, $500. But if diesel gets that crazy I'll stay home.
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Old 05-16-2022, 04:36 AM   #13
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I think north of virginia in the northeast it is all over $6 a gallon. Below it is still under... (Last month I did a 4+ week trip to Florida and back, every once in a while i could get fuel under $5 using some form of discount program). Attached are two screen shots from the open roads app I have.
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Old 05-16-2022, 05:05 AM   #14
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Filled up in Moundsville, WV yesterday @Walmart. Diesel was $5.27/gal. I'd glady pay more if they bought some damned asphalt and patched the pot holes. I'm not asking for much, not saying repave but Jeez, at least fill a pot hole every 50 years or so.
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Old 05-16-2022, 05:31 AM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gearhead View Post
Yep, nothing like pouring diesel into your truck from a 5 gallon can on the side of I-40.
That’s why 65 gallons extra in an aux tank plumbed into the main tank giving 100 gallons of fuel and over 1,000 mile range is nice. When I transported, I could plan my route, check diesel prices along the entire trip and fill up according to prices. Sometimes I’d only go 200 miles before I topped off the tanks, but also had times where it would top off both tanks in Utah, drop an RV in Sacramento or Pomona, but not get fuel until I hit AZ. I’d be on fumes by the time I got to AZ, but never had to get fuel in CA. Most times I could buy in NV, but every now and then NV would be just as bad as CA making the UT situation. I calculated fuel costs difference once based on where I would have to get fuel if I had a 300 mile range vs a 1,000 mile range. On a 5,000 mile round trip the savings was with a 15 mpg average (typically about 3,000 miles were unloaded) the savings worked out to about $100. If all 5,000 miles has been loaded miles, the savings would have been closer to $150. You can typically save about 30 cents per gallon when you can plan your fuel stops based on price instead of range. Granted it takes a lot of miles to pay for an $800 aux tank, but with the prices being as crazy and the differences from one location to another, it won’t take as many as it would have a year ago.
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Old 05-16-2022, 06:07 AM   #16
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I'm having a hard time squaring this whole fuel price increase. Almost all of the Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel (ULSD) consumed in the US is produced and refined in the US. In 2020 we produced about 1.66 billion barrels and consumed 1.37 billion barrels which allowed us to export .37 billion barrels.
So here's my problem, if we import little if any USLD and the cost of production and refining hasn't increased nearly as much as the retail price, then why has the price increased to the point that it has?? And, why is there a shortage in the US anyway??
Here's my only answer: "Exxon’s Q1 2022 net income is $2.954 billion higher than the same time period in 2021. [ExxonMobil, Press Release, 04/29/22]"
"Chevron made $4.879 billion more in Q1 2022 than the same time in 2021. [Chevron, Press Release, 04/29/22]"
Anybody else think "Big Oil" is taking advantage of the world price to inflate the value of their products??
I'll go get some popcorn now
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Old 05-16-2022, 06:23 AM   #17
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It's concerning...unnerving- all that. I'm not gonna drop to my knees in fear, but you can't just shut everything down, get "involved" in another stupid conflict where all the machines run on diesel, and expect to maintain supply- that not considering all the other supply chain disruptions. $5.499 here yesterday, and I keep asking myself why I didn't add an aux tank or swap my main for a larger capacity one when I was first considering it- about a $1.00 less per gallon ago. Dang hindsight...having a few 5 gallon jugs in rotation is small comfort...

Still- I have previously never let the cost of fuel override my recreation plans. Done it before- cut back elsewhere. Since I only eat meat nowadays, I can be fine on one meal a day and that is saving me significant dollars- like half my food spending- as one example. My oldest in his late 20's is going full time to save money over traditional housing, and is embracing the challenges of such. I think he might be a bit ahead of the game! He's got his first 6 months fully locked down at the lake north of us, and will immediately plan for the next 6.

The price of diesel exceeding gas has got to be tied to the "conflict" right? I mean, if we are assuming ANY organic causes- which are highly questionable at the very least. And though I'm an upbeat person with a sharp eye on the potential for doom, I'm taking it as it is and hoping for some reversal- but not expecting it. Just watch and see, trusting in the Lord as much as I am able. Relatable? Anyone?

P.S. Having sounded like a broken record for 2+ years now shouting "supply chain" it's become one of those phrases I'm frankly sick of hearing- besides the fact of which it still smacks me sane in every single matter of goods and services distribution.
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Old 05-16-2022, 06:38 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gearhead View Post
If the US economy ramps up so will demand.
If? The US economy is doing very well.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/05/b...n-economy.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by rhagfo View Post
. . . we should not depend on Russian oil!
We don't. From the Wall Street Journal: "Setting aside refined products, Russian oil alone made up roughly 3% of the nation’s imports, about 200,000 barrels a day."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-doe...il-11646151935

Quote:
Originally Posted by Canonman View Post
I'm having a hard time squaring this whole fuel price increase.
Anybody else think "Big Oil" is taking advantage of the world price to inflate the value of their products??
I'll go get some popcorn now
X2. Everybody seems to want to blame the politicians but in truth no president - Republican or Democrat - has much influence on free market pricing. IMHO it is all on greedy oil companies.

I'm half way thru an eight week trip. Have traveled from Portland, OR to (now in) Nashville. The highest I've paid for diesel is $5.69 and the lowest was $4.49. There seems to be no rhyme or reason to the pricing. Found low prices in Wyoming and some of the highest in Texas. Nashville has the lowest I've seen so far - $4.39 - at one discount station. I've read or heard nothing about any rationing but I've not seen much news lately as most of our sites have been out in the woods with little connectivity.
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Old 05-16-2022, 06:47 AM   #19
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I was employed by and receive a pension from what was the biggest oil company in the world, but I'm not an apologist for them.
Think of it like this, if you had the only tomatoes in town would you sell them for the cheapest price you could? Of course not. Oil companies have stockholders that want to see profits. But, and it's a big but, they will take advantage of a situation. As some democrat once said "let no crisis go to waste."
There's no denying that crude oil has risen. Also most of the super majors have sold all their land holdings, keeping only the offshore production. Big international investment companies, Blackrock, etc have gone "woke" and will not invest in oil companies. Back to those tomatoes: if you had crazy groups threatening to burn your crops and barns to put you out of business, how interested would you be in making capital improvements?
A large amount of diesel is exported. Mexico and China apparently will pay anything for it.
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Old 05-16-2022, 07:54 AM   #20
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i’ve been wondering about fuel delivery to different places …do the trucks that deliver fuel to service stations have to pay the same price for diesel fuel ? and that cost is passed on to consumers at the market price ?

seems like the distributor would have a deal worked out with the oil company’s for fixed fuel costs similar to how airlines do it..just a random question
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