Diesel Shortage Coming?

jsb5717 · 05-15-2022, 10:15 AM

OK, I'm not a fear monger and don't pay much attention to sensationalized news. But with all of our collective planned travels, especially into the summer months, this could be a big deal.

Has anyone else been hearing about projected shortages, rationing, and skyrocketing diesel prices?

gearhead · 05-15-2022, 10:43 AM

I heard, on CNBC I think, that diesel prices will go much higher. No reason given. Assuming higher demand. I would take a WAG and wonder if Mexico and China are expected to want more diesel and be willing to pay whatever. Mexico can't manage to keep their refineries running and bought Shell refineries.
My Shell refinery, Deer Park/Houston, was configured for diesel and pushed a lot of it out. The Mexican president is under a lot of pressure to get fuel to Mexico.
If the US economy ramps up so will demand.

skmct · 05-22-2022, 12:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gearhead

I heard, on CNBC I think, that diesel prices will go much higher. No reason given. Assuming higher demand. I would take a WAG and wonder if Mexico and China are expected to want more diesel and be willing to pay whatever. Mexico can't manage to keep their refineries running and bought Shell refineries.
My Shell refinery, Deer Park/Houston, was configured for diesel and pushed a lot of it out. The Mexican president is under a lot of pressure to get fuel to Mexico.
If the US economy ramps up so will demand.

I read the reason for the diesel increases and shortage is because world wide shipping regulations now require all ships to use the low Sulphur diesel. Which has increased demand beyond refinery capabilities

rhagfo · 05-15-2022, 12:13 PM

Damn, just paid $5.49 with $0.20 discount! Normal price $5.69, we should not depend on Russian oil!

NO EDIT! Regular gas is $4.79 to $4.99 here west of Portland!

roadglide · 05-15-2022, 12:27 PM

I have Illinois trip coming up soon I’ll be all right for that trip. The Sturgis trip this August has me a bit concerned. I topped off with 76 gallons of diesel last weekend at $.40 a gallon less then home .

Camping family · 05-15-2022, 04:07 PM

Was just reading a news arrival and they’re talking about rationing diesel in some places. Around my area it is 5.50 and everyday it’s going up. Been a few stations that have run out and said their delivery has been delayed because of shortages.

NH_Bulldog · 05-15-2022, 05:18 PM

This is fuel in my town today. Diesel is insane. Prices are scaring off our travel companions for our planned summer excursions, but we budgeted for it so we are pressing on.

bsmith0404 · 05-15-2022, 05:32 PM

Aux tank is starting to look better and better. Used to have one when I transported, I’m thinking it’s time for another one. Creates a lot of flexibility when traveling

notanlines · 05-16-2022, 04:06 AM

"I'm not a fear monger and don't pay much attention to sensationalized news. But...."
Now that's funny, I don't care who you are.

gearhead · 05-16-2022, 04:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bsmith0404

Aux tank is starting to look better and better. Used to have one when I transported, I’m thinking it’s time for another one. Creates a lot of flexibility when traveling

Yep, nothing like pouring diesel into your truck from a 5 gallon can on the side of I-40.

bsmith0404 · 05-16-2022, 05:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gearhead

Yep, nothing like pouring diesel into your truck from a 5 gallon can on the side of I-40.

That’s why 65 gallons extra in an aux tank plumbed into the main tank giving 100 gallons of fuel and over 1,000 mile range is nice. When I transported, I could plan my route, check diesel prices along the entire trip and fill up according to prices. Sometimes I’d only go 200 miles before I topped off the tanks, but also had times where it would top off both tanks in Utah, drop an RV in Sacramento or Pomona, but not get fuel until I hit AZ. I’d be on fumes by the time I got to AZ, but never had to get fuel in CA. Most times I could buy in NV, but every now and then NV would be just as bad as CA making the UT situation. I calculated fuel costs difference once based on where I would have to get fuel if I had a 300 mile range vs a 1,000 mile range. On a 5,000 mile round trip the savings was with a 15 mpg average (typically about 3,000 miles were unloaded) the savings worked out to about $100. If all 5,000 miles has been loaded miles, the savings would have been closer to $150. You can typically save about 30 cents per gallon when you can plan your fuel stops based on price instead of range. Granted it takes a lot of miles to pay for an $800 aux tank, but with the prices being as crazy and the differences from one location to another, it won’t take as many as it would have a year ago.

Tom-67X · 05-16-2022, 06:23 AM

It's concerning...unnerving- all that. I'm not gonna drop to my knees in fear, but you can't just shut everything down, get "involved" in another stupid conflict where all the machines run on diesel, and expect to maintain supply- that not considering all the other supply chain disruptions. $5.499 here yesterday, and I keep asking myself why I didn't add an aux tank or swap my main for a larger capacity one when I was first considering it- about a $1.00 less per gallon ago. Dang hindsight...having a few 5 gallon jugs in rotation is small comfort...

Still- I have previously never let the cost of fuel override my recreation plans. Done it before- cut back elsewhere. Since I only eat meat nowadays, I can be fine on one meal a day and that is saving me significant dollars- like half my food spending- as one example. My oldest in his late 20's is going full time to save money over traditional housing, and is embracing the challenges of such. I think he might be a bit ahead of the game! He's got his first 6 months fully locked down at the lake north of us, and will immediately plan for the next 6.

The price of diesel exceeding gas has got to be tied to the "conflict" right? I mean, if we are assuming ANY organic causes- which are highly questionable at the very least. And though I'm an upbeat person with a sharp eye on the potential for doom, I'm taking it as it is and hoping for some reversal- but not expecting it. Just watch and see, trusting in the Lord as much as I am able. Relatable? Anyone?

P.S. Having sounded like a broken record for 2+ years now shouting "supply chain" it's become one of those phrases I'm frankly sick of hearing- besides the fact of which it still smacks me sane in every single matter of goods and services distribution.

dmfrosty · 05-22-2022, 07:30 AM

Thought I was the only one🤣

gearhead · 05-16-2022, 04:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NH_Bulldog

This is fuel in my town today. Diesel is insane. Prices are scaring off our travel companions for our planned summer excursions, but we budgeted for it so we are pressing on.

$6.15 for diesel would scare me off.
I have a 2,000 mile round trip planned in August. Ticket and camp spot is paid for, $500. But if diesel gets that crazy I'll stay home.

jxnbbl · 05-16-2022, 04:36 AM

I think north of virginia in the northeast it is all over $6 a gallon. Below it is still under... (Last month I did a 4+ week trip to Florida and back, every once in a while i could get fuel under $5 using some form of discount program). Attached are two screen shots from the open roads app I have.

Life-in-Him · 05-22-2022, 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gearhead

$6.15 for diesel would scare me off.
I have a 2,000 mile round trip planned in August. Ticket and camp spot is paid for, $500. But if diesel gets that crazy I'll stay home.

Here in Bakersfield CA. Today, The posted price@ Shell & brand x across the street diesel is $6.199 & $6.259 cash.
CC's are $0.10 more.
Refineries are all around. Over on I5 it was $6.599 & 0.10 more for CC today.

Gasoline is $5.59-5.79 for 91oct.

gearhead · 05-16-2022, 04:10 AM

This morning Goldman Sachs is predicting crude oil at $125 with $150 very possible.

jxnbbl · 05-16-2022, 04:21 AM

Personally this makes no sense to me. We refine oil to make fuel. My understanding is gasoline takes more refining but diesel is more? Back in the 80s I remember diesel be a significantly lower than regular gas....probably has to do with refinery capacity/delivery mechanisms but it makes no sense (at least to me).

The other item is that we are through a heating season but this is the same fuel used in many parts of the country to heat houses. (just with a dye in it).

stubones · 05-23-2022, 05:09 AM

Diesel fuel changed in 1993 when the oil producers priced diesel higher based on the BTU content. Since there is more heat, more power, etc... more price. Why that wasn't stopped by FTC on price fixing / price rigging, I don't know, but we have the best government money can buy.

gearhead · 05-24-2022, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stubones

Diesel fuel changed in 1993 when the oil producers priced diesel higher based on the BTU content. Since there is more heat, more power, etc... more price. Why that wasn't stopped by FTC on price fixing / price rigging, I don't know, but we have the best government money can buy.

Do you have a source for that? I've never heard of such. I'm not saying it is untrue, I was busy in 1993.
https://www.google.com/books/edition...sec=frontcover

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