Is the buying frenzy for RVs over??

[German Shepherd Guy]

Had to drive into town two days ago. "Town" is Montrose CO and 65 miles away so this is not a regular trip. Just outside of town there is a dealership in cars and RVs that specializes in consignment. I have never, in all the years that business has been there, seen so many nearly new RVs on their lot. I wanted to stop and do some pricing and walk through but was limited by time and the amount of things needing to be done while in Town. Two years ago there were almost no RVs for sale at this place. Have not looked lately but have any of you noticed a slowdown in RV sales in your area? Maybe it will start slowing to where we can find nice places to camp again without all the crowding.

[bsmith0404]

I get mixed info. I’ve talked to people at the dealership where I used to sell. The salesmen say it’s coming to a screeching halt. I think I mentioned in another thread that I went in on a Saturday and seven salesmen where sitting around talking to each other. That was very, VERY rare mid day on a Saturday when I worked there (before COVID). The new sales manager and GM are both from the car industry and know nothing about RVs. I talked to them and asked how they plan to train the salesmen when they don’t know anything about RVs? (brought that up because some of the other guys mentioned they don’t do any product knowledge training anymore). Their response was they’re still setting record sales numbers and don’t need product knowledge, they just need to stick to the sales process (same tactics they use in car sales). So managers saying still doing record sales, salesmen saying it’s slowed way down. I tend to believe the guys I know that were in it before, during, and after COVID. I offered my services to train on product knowledge, they just laughed at me.

[peanut]

From a private person, non-industry perspective I have to say I don't think it has slowed too much.

Long story, short (I hope) I put my 10 year old TT up for sale (Craigslist and RV Trader). A few days later I was browsing the webpage of the local dealer that sells the model we plan to upgrade to. I noticed that they sold "on consignment" and figured maybe it would be easier if I let them sell my trailer. I went in and talked to the sales manager. I asked two questions - what is your commission on consignments (zero commission, he said- surprised me) and who sets the price. They set the price, he said. He told me that the market had gone down tremendously (well over 30% he said) in the last three months, so my TT wasn't worth what I was asking. He said I'd be lucky to get $11K and probably should be asking for $9K. I sold it 4 days later for $17K to the first person that came and actually looked at it.

Now shopping for a new 5th wheel, but every time I find one online that looks promising it seems to disappear in a few days. Three weeks ago the local dealer had three of the model we want. Now they have none. Internet searches (after I sold ours) showed only four (excluding the local dealer) in a 500 mile radius. Now, three weeks later, only two are still listed and one has a "sale pending" appended to it.

From a personal viewpoint, it doesn't seem too slow to me.

[chuckster57]

From a newsletter I get monthly, RVDA executive:

“RV Sales and Shipment Forecasts Change in Face of Economic Pressures
Baird, who conducts monthly dealer surveys in partnership with RVDA, expects that 530,000 units will be shipped in 2022, down from 600,000 in 2021. At retail, the Baird model assumes dealers will sell 480,000 RVs in 2022.”

[jsb5717]

In one of Josh the RV Nerd’s recent videos he said that there are still a lot of 2022 models sitting at the OEMs that weren’t ordered by dealers. They just overbuilt, expecting the 2022 sales to be the same as 2021. Sales have been down and now there’s a glut of the 2022’s that will ultimately slow down the introduction of 2023’s into the marketplace. He encouraged those currently in the market to do their research as there could be some good deals on 2022 models in the next few months as the OEM’s and major dealers come to some “handshake” deals to get the current inventory moved.

A year ago most RV lots were sparse…now they’re full. Josh also said that we should expect a slow decline in pricing from the OEM’s and more aggressive, competitive pricing from the dealers. He doesn’t expect that prices will come back down to where they were pre-covid. He also doesn’t expect them to come down quickly. “Up like a rocket, down like a parachute”

[Bustinbeards]

Where I live there are 4 dealerships within 1 mile of each other.

every one is jam packed with new units and as been since January/February. They don’t appear to be selling them as they had been.

[bsmith0404]

Originally Posted by peanut

From a private person, non-industry perspective I have to say I don't think it has slowed too much.

Long story, short (I hope) I put my 10 year old TT up for sale (Craigslist and RV Trader). A few days later I was browsing the webpage of the local dealer that sells the model we plan to upgrade to. I noticed that they sold "on consignment" and figured maybe it would be easier if I let them sell my trailer. I went in and talked to the sales manager. I asked two questions - what is your commission on consignments (zero commission, he said- surprised me) and who sets the price. They set the price, he said. He told me that the market had gone down tremendously (well over 30% he said) in the last three months, so my TT wasn't worth what I was asking. He said I'd be lucky to get $11K and probably should be asking for $9K. I sold it 4 days later for $17K to the first person that came and actually looked at it.

Now shopping for a new 5th wheel, but every time I find one online that looks promising it seems to disappear in a few days. Three weeks ago the local dealer had three of the model we want. Now they have none. Internet searches (after I sold ours) showed only four (excluding the local dealer) in a 500 mile radius. Now, three weeks later, only two are still listed and one has a "sale pending" appended to it.

From a personal viewpoint, it doesn't seem too slow to me.

Not surprised the dealer told you that. Here’s how they work consignments in the rv industry (could be some differences at some dealers). You agree on a price that you will get paid when it sells. For example, in your case the dealer may have offered you $7k. You sign a contract, typically 60-90 days, the dealer then lists your trailer at the top end of the market value, in your case, probably around $18k. If they sell it, you get the $7k you agreed to and they keep the rest. So no commission, just a difference between agreed price and sale price.

IMO, consignment is one of the worst ways to try to sell an RV. The dealer has no skin in the game, it doesn’t cost them a dime to leave it sit in the back corner, so they have no incentive to work a deal. They try to sell it for a huge profit, if it doesn’t sell, they then tell you to pick it up or try to get you to agree to less money. They tell you they have it marked up as high as they do in order to negotiate down, but they don’t negotiate with potential buyers.

I had a friend (well, former customer) contact me and ask me what I recommend he does. He had his RV at a local dealer on consignment for 6 months and it hadn’t sold. I told him I’d sell it for him. We agreed that he’d give me 10% commission. I sold it in 3 hours for $5k less than the dealer was asking and he still made $4k more than the consignment dealer was going to give him. They had it overpriced and had no incentive to negotiate with customers.

[sourdough]

I think we're probably at the start of a slowdown as best I can tell. Like has been mentioned, you kind of get two different stories and I think that may be why.

I was visiting with the sales manager at my dealership last week and he said they were still selling like hotcakes; had more models and brands than ever before....when I mentioned there were a lot of RVs sitting out there he said they had over 300 on the lot(s). Now a year ago (or so) they had very little on the lot when I visited with him and had used RVs sitting on the front lines - they were selling everything new they could get their hands on. So slowdown, overstocked, over ordered, built too many or whatever I think they are way overpriced. I also think that come year end we'll see some sort of aggressive pricing trying to reduce the inventory of new units as well as the beginning of the return of units from folks disillusioned with RVing. It seems that it is playing out like a lot of members on this forum thought it would when it started in past discussions.

All that said I think there are still a lot of folks new to RVs buying them, new and used. I've not made a trip yet since Covid that there weren't folks in the campground making their maiden voyage in their new RV be it a tiny tear drop or big Newmar diesel pusher. Guess we'll see about Dec-Jan.

[bsmith0404]

I’m thinking it may start sooner than that if the statement about the 2022 inventory up in IN is accurate. Manufacturers will want that inventory gone before dealers buy 2023s, dealers won’t want to get stuck with a large inventory of 2022s at the end of the year. Manufacturers will have to provide incentives to get dealers to take the old inventory and then offer more incentives to help them sell them throughout and at the end of the year. They definitely will not want a bunch of 2022s on the lot come 1 Jan. If there is in fact a bunch of 2022 inventory sitting up there, I think you’ll start seeing sales on them in Oct, maybe even as early as next month.

Unless manufacturers start pulling the same thing that Heartland has done for years, just change the model year. I don’t know how they get away with that. I’ve seen multiple RVs with a model year on registration that is over a year newer than the build date. For example, had a 2012 Heartland Big Country come in on trade, build date was Nov 2010. Reason we noticed, the book didn’t show that model for 2012, last year it showed was 2011. Checked the paperwork and build date to verify year. Sales manager said he’s seen that several times with them. The dealership used to sell them new, so I have to believe what he says it true.

[flybouy]

Soaring sustained fuel prices, increasing interest rates, projected layoffs, I would expect a slow down in disposable income spending. As for dealerships reporting strong sales, well I would expect nothing less. The last thing a dealer would do is say " yes sales are in the tank and I'm concerned business is failing so would you like to start beating me up on price?"

[Texas Steve]

I drive by a private dealership (Crestview RV), a Camping World, and a consignment lot (PPL Motorhomes) everyday and their lots a just jamb packed with units of all kinds. A little over 2 months ago, they had about half the inventory they have now. Don't know if they are all new, or trades / consignments. Appears to be slowing a little around here (San Antonio / New Braunfels, Texas)

[wiredgeorge]

Suspect the the wildly inflated price increases while the manufacturers were cranking them out and the increase interest rates and folks getting nervous about inflation and the economy in general would put a wet blanket on sales and there are likely a lot of campers in the production pipeline that will just fill the lots even more.

[Ddaddyo]

Everyone that wanted a New RV the last 3 years has it. All the Dealers in Northern Indiana are packed with New Units. The RV Industry is Closing Plants and in most cases only working 3 days per week. I went by Camping World in Coldwater Mi. yesterday, I'll bet they had 150 units on the lot.

[adeakins]

If the fact that Keystone is closing two plants in Goshen, IN is any indication and that profits for the industry in the whole were way down last quarter, I would say; “yeah”, the bloom is off that blossom. On the other hand, I recently read that the full time RV’er population - and we are in that category - has grown considerably over the past couple of years. That said; my personal observation as a work camper / camp host is that this year is underperforming expectations.

[johnnybadger]

A good friend of ours is the VP of sales for a manufacturer of a raw material used extensively in the RV industry. Earlier this year (and really for the past several years) her clients (RV manufacturers) were working 24/7 on all three shifts. She now reports that these same manufacturers are only operating three days per week; not sure of how many shifts.

[Canonman]

One of our local dealers just opened a new lot. It's full. Over 300 units plus his other lots are full as well. Murray North (370),Murray South (158), Parris RV - Payson (308)
Parris RV - Pocatello, ID (155).
Haven't noticed any real price reductions yet but with the glut in inventory sales prices have got to be coming down. I just hope the same thing is true for the automotive industry. I really want a new truck

[Gunny Mike]

I recall in past years the RV industry suffers during high fuel prices. Sure are alot of RV haulers going south on US 31 for a slowdown.

[Badbart56]

From my contacts with the RV haulers on the road and at truck stops, they're all whining about no RV's to haul. Most of the time they just run to Elkhart and get in line for pickups but they're sitting and hoping these days.

I have suggested to many of them to just get that class A CDL and get with the big trucking companies and drive the semis. Everyone is hiring and the money is excellent with the elite carriers (not Swift, Covenant, Stevens Transport, etc.) but they can go through a training company like those and get the needed experience to move up to the really good carriers.

I've tried to recruit for the company we drive for but apparently no one believes that we're making this kind of money and have it as good as we do! It amazes me how so many truck drivers will stay at a mediocre company and complain about it but they're too afraid to make a change and improve their situation.

[Jonahex2099]

We took our first trip with the new Passport last weekend and drove through Tacoma, WA which is RV lot heavy along i5 - and all the lots are full to almost overflowing...bigger "box" dealers than our dealer closer to us but it seems there's a lot of excess inventory. We got ours well under MSRP in early July - so I can see fire sales coming....

[wiredgeorge]

Originally Posted by Badbart56

From my contacts with the RV haulers on the road and at truck stops, they're all whining about no RV's to haul. Most of the time they just run to Elkhart and get in line for pickups but they're sitting and hoping these days.

I have suggested to many of them to just get that class A CDL and get with the big trucking companies and drive the semis. Everyone is hiring and the money is excellent with the elite carriers (not Swift, Covenant, Stevens Transport, etc.) but they can go through a training company like those and get the needed experience to move up to the really good carriers.

I've tried to recruit for the company we drive for but apparently no one believes that we're making this kind of money and have it as good as we do! It amazes me how so many truck drivers will stay at a mediocre company and complain about it but they're too afraid to make a change and improve their situation.

Do big rig truck drivers still have to be able to back up? That is what kept me from the big bucks! Oh yeah, and driving through city trafic.... no bueno.