Used rv market

[jasin1]

I wonder if this is the start of an excessive used rv market... just got an email from Gander and they have over 7000 used rv’s. A lot of 2019 - 2021 models ... I wonder if that’s the COVID market newbies getting out of rv’s after one year... could have an effect on trade in prices probably

[flybouy]

After every boom market a crash follows, just how big of a crash and for how long is the tricky part. If I knew that I'd be trading on the stock market, not camping.

[JRTJH]

As Marshall said, it could be the start of a crashing RV market or it could be that Gander (Bass Pro) is trying to get the "market share" away from Camping World....

This is the beginning of the 2021 camping season. Every major marketing area has just held a "RV Show" or has one scheduled within the next 4-6 weeks.

My guess is Gander/Bass Pro is trying to sell theirs first before Camping World's latest ads hit the street...

Reminds me of the Sunday newspaper flyers between Walgreen's and Rite Aide...

[jasin1]

Out of curiosity is there a sweet spot of trade in value vs cost of unit for fifth wheels and travel trailers? Does the value of the fifth wheel drop off dramatically after say 5 - 6 years old ? Do some of you trade every few years? I wouldn’t want to get in a situation where they just tack on the depreciation value onto the new fifth wheel I would be looking at..

[notanlines]

I dont believe The Great American Outdoors Group/Bass Pro is after Gander/Camping World.

[jasin1]

Originally Posted by flybouy

After every boom market a crash follows, just how big of a crash and for how long is the tricky part. If I knew that I'd be trading on the stock market, not camping.

That’s like the lumber market... man I just bought a sheet of plywood yesterday and it was $56 ... pressure treated fencing sections are up to $72...was like $49 a year ago... my son wanted to build a addition and I said “ wait” prices will go down and they seem to have just kept rising ... Canadian border closing had a lot to do with it I’ve read..
I do hope those prices go down soon...
It seems when someone finds out how much your willing to spend on something they seldom lower the price quickly after the market adjusts...
They just say “ yeah you know ..what can we do .. COVID ..are hands are tied”
Same thing with customer service

[Javi]

Originally Posted by jasin1

That’s like the lumber market... man I just bought a sheet of plywood yesterday and it was $56 ... pressure treated fencing sections are up to $72...was like $49 a year ago... my son wanted to build a addition and I said “ wait” prices will go down and they seem to have just kept rising ... Canadian border closing had a lot to do with it I’ve read..
I do hope those prices go down soon...
It seems when someone finds out how much your willing to spend on something they seldom lower the price quickly after the market adjusts...
They just say “ yeah you know ..what can we do .. COVID ..are hands are tied”
Same thing with customer service

Hold my beer and watch this... it ain't even begun to get as bad as it's gonna be... this is going to continue at least through this year and some of the upper management in the mills are predicting through 2025

[jasin1]

Originally Posted by Javi

Hold my beer and watch this... it ain't even begun to get as bad as it's gonna be... this is going to continue at least through this year and some of the upper management in the mills are predicting through 2025

My sons home is pretty small and he wanted to add a second floor/ rear addition.. I’m going with him today to get prequalified for a construction loan.. now he is saying let’s just keep the home the way it is and I will buy another house cheaper then building one... ( he owns his outright and would keep it in the family). it really is hard to predict everything that’s been affected by this global pandemic fiasco

2025? .. people by then will start to forget how cheap lumber was and the new baseline for prices will still be up

[Javi]

Originally Posted by jasin1

My sons home is pretty small and he wanted to add a second floor/ rear addition.. I’m going with him today to get prequalified for a construction loan.. now he is saying let’s just keep the home the way it is and I will buy another house cheaper then building one... it really is hard to predict everything that’s been affected by this global pandemic fiasco

2025? .. people by then will start to forget how cheap lumber was and the new baseline for prices will still be up

Not just lumber, it's steel, adhesives, pretty much everything.

I ordered 40,000 pounds of stainless a month ago @ $1.48 for immediate delivery and last week it was $2.35 for July delivery at the earliest. Today it's $2.55 for next available (predicted September)

[jasin1]

Originally Posted by Javi

Not just lumber, it's steel, adhesives, pretty much everything.

I ordered 40,000 pounds of stainless a month ago @ $1.48 for immediate delivery and last week it was $2.35 for July delivery at the earliest. Today it's $2.55 for next available (predicted September)

... I may invest in a portable sawmill .. I bet people that own land they never considered selling for lumber are looking at it a little differently now .. but I guess if it’s a bottleneck at the mills it wouldn’t matter a whole lot

[JRTJH]

Originally Posted by notanlines

I dont believe The Great American Outdoors Group/Bass Pro is after Gander/Camping World.

If both groups are selling RV's to the public, they are competing. Even if it's a "GM/Buick/Chevrolet or a Ford/Mercury or a Dodge/Jeep" relationship, they are all competing for market share. Whether it's CW trying to increase Gander's share or BP trying to increase Cabela's share, they all are "trying to extract public wallet contents".... First to market AKA "The early bird"....

[jasin1]

Originally Posted by Javi

Not just lumber, it's steel, adhesives, pretty much everything.

I ordered 40,000 pounds of stainless a month ago @ $1.48 for immediate delivery and last week it was $2.35 for July delivery at the earliest. Today it's $2.55 for next available (predicted September)

Now I’m curious...what does one do with 40000 lbs of stainless ? If I may ask... eh probably none of my business ..I’m just the curious sort

[gearhead]

I watch the lumber price on Chicago Mercantile Exchange because we have 30,000 pine trees that will be due the first thinning in 2-3 years. The price has been 300-350 until very recently. It went over $1,000 maybe 4 weeks ago and has been hovering $850 to $950. The problem is the land owners aren't seeing those prices. The mill is getting most of it. I watch stumpage prices in SE Texas and Louisiana and that price increase is not reflected. Actually oak sawtimber is higher than pine, for some reason.

[JRTJH]

Originally Posted by jasin1

... it really is hard to predict everything that’s been affected by this global pandemic fiasco

2025? .. people by then will start to forget how cheap lumber was and the new baseline for prices will still be up

Thinking ahead, Keystone (and most of the other manufacturers of RV's) negotiated prices for everything from Lippert frames to GP luan to Dometic refrigerators they needed for this year's "production run" long ago. Whether the supplies were negoitated in 2019 or in 2020, it's a "sure bet" that next year's RV's will face significantly increased materials costs....

So, if (for example) Keystone contracted for everything they're using to build trailers this year at 2020 prices and they're currently contracting at "today's prices" for materials to build 2022/2023 models, it's fairly easy to see that a $50K RV today could easily be a $75K RV next year.....

What that will do to the "retained value of a trade" is anybody's guess, but I'd suspect that if the "pandemic rush to sell used RV's" doesn't materialize, we'll see more people keeping used ones rather than pay the "outrageous" price for a new one. That will make the "supply and demand for quality used RV's" much harder to find and probably drive up prices.

Even if material prices do fall dramatically, depending on whether manufacturers can renegotiate their contracts, this surge in raw materials costs might well cause a couple of years of hard to swallow price increases before the market settles down again....

In short, the question becomes, do you buy a new one "before the price hikes" or do you wait it out and hope prices fall again before the current RV needs replacement???? Looking back, a 2013 Cougar Half Ton that had a MSRP of around $30K compared to a 2021 "similar floorplan" is in the $55K range. Looking ahead, will today's $55K be selling for $85K or back to a more reasonable MSRP ???

Oh for a crystal ball, eh?

[Javi]

Originally Posted by jasin1

Now I’m curious...what does one do with 40000 lbs of stainless ? If I may ask... eh probably none of my business ..I’m just the curious sort

See pm

That's only 16 rooms...

[Javi]

Originally Posted by gearhead

I watch the lumber price on Chicago Mercantile Exchange because we have 30,000 pine trees that will be due the first thinning in 2-3 years. The price has been 300-350 until very recently. It went over $1,000 maybe 4 weeks ago and has been hovering $850 to $950. The problem is the land owners aren't seeing those prices. The mill is getting most of it. I watch stumpage prices in SE Texas and Louisiana and that price increase is not reflected. Actually oak sawtimber is higher than pine, for some reason.

I'm having 353 feet of 6ft privacy fence built for double what it was this time last year..

[flybouy]

Yup, circles back to my post.

I recall when South West Airlines was fledgling start up. Some genius there decided to place all his/her bets on locking in a HUGE deal on future fuel prices. They won big time. Fuel went skyrocketing, airlines were raising fares and cutting routes to compensate and SWA stepped in and said "Hey, look over here! We'll take you there for a pittance of what those guys charge!" and look at them now.

Oh how I wish I had the talent to predict that.

[jasin1]

Originally Posted by gearhead

I watch the lumber price on Chicago Mercantile Exchange because we have 30,000 pine trees that will be due the first thinning in 2-3 years. The price has been 300-350 until very recently. It went over $1,000 maybe 4 weeks ago and has been hovering $850 to $950. The problem is the land owners aren't seeing those prices. The mill is getting most of it. I watch stumpage prices in SE Texas and Louisiana and that price increase is not reflected. Actually oak sawtimber is higher than pine, for some reason.

Well it’s nice having a crop that can’t perish and only gets bigger. Sad that the landowner doesn’t see any benefit

[jasin1]

I have a question for those of you that know more about the finance world...
somewhat related...

Why is it that I can’t go into my bank without an appt? I belong to two credit unions and major banks and both only allow appts or drive thru.
Forget about trying to get them on the phone,it take hours. I asked the lady at the drive Thru when the bank would reopen and she said “ gosh I don’t know” “possibly in May” “because we have to be safe.”.
I’m sure she shops in stores and goes about her life when not in the bank.
Why can’t you have two people at a time walk into the bank and the line could remain outside. I touch the drivethru tube and my check and hand her my license and I don’t think it’s sterilized
Some of you are wiser then me but it seems like the bank has a lot more cash on hand at any one time for their own benefit...
and it used to be easy to walk in and withdraw $10000 if you needed it for a big private purchase..
some older people can’t even use the drive thru. It sure seems to me they don’t want people withdrawing large sums of cash
It reminds me of “it’s a wonderful life” when they didn’t want people making large withdrawals.
Sorry for the diversion

[gearhead]

^They don't want over $10,000 cash withdrawn because the Feds are trying to limit drug transactions.
The other stuff is just cranial rectal inversion.