"The RV industry is better at calling recessions than economists are."

[LHaven]

But quite possibly good news for RVers looking to upgrade their wheels, as dealers scramble to move theirs...

"Domestic shipments of RVs to dealers have plummeted 20% so far this year, compared to the same period last year, after dropping 4% in 2018, according to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association."

More narrative and charts at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...dustry-crashes

[CaptnJohn]

Right, blame Trump! How about record sales for years to a finite number of buyers? How about lack of storage facilities and high storage fees? How about CGs that are booked a year or more in advance? I'd say they are over due for a 50% - 70% drop before signaling anything but a whine.

[Tbos]

I think the industry has been ready for a slowdown for a while. At the rate it was growing there was no way it could continue for ever.

[Gegrad]

Sounds like the RV industry is hoping for a massive windstorm to blow through a huge part of the country and total out about 50,000 units ...........

[ajk170]

So I'm working on my Masters Thesis in the form of a theoretical Cost-Benefit Analysis of purchasing an independent campground and converting to a KOA Journey or Holiday (more likely a Journey) and I've seen some of the articles on the RV manufacturers slowdown in first quarter as compared to the same time last year. But some of the articles I've seen also point that despite the slowdown in RV output (RV in this sense are A, B, C and Towables (TT, 5er and popup) the total volume of RVs is still up and higher than it has been. Particularly in the newer smaller towable portion emerging in the last couple years from the manufactureres. The problem I'm having is finding any type of scholarly works (University of Michigan's Consumer Survey department hasn't produced a survey since 2011) that support any analysis of the industry. There are some (a couple) articles/white papers from the RVIA sponsored by the University of Connecticut that talk about the direction of the industry but even those are a little dated (by about four years). Mostly everything that I've found talking about the industry as a whole (incorporates manufgacturing and all supporting parts of the industry such as RV camp grounds, service centers dealers etc) are anecdotal. I have a lot of demographic data suggesting whose in the RV market and a couple interesting points emerged from RVIA and KOA surveys in conjunction with a couple of articles regarding the Baby Boomer Generation. First, RVIA surveys appear to show that people begin to exit the RV market at age 65+. The Average age (in 2011) of the RV owner was 49 and the height of the Baby Boomer Generation was 1957. The average time people held onto an RV (for purposes of that survey RVs were A, B, C and Towables (TT, 5ers and pop-ups) (in 2011) was 10 years. And as we recovered out of the recession in 2013/2014 the RV industry saw a boom for about 5 years. So, to TBos's point, there is no way the RV manufacturers could sustain the growth. I would have to go back and look at the 2011 survey to see what the entry rate was into the RV market (predominatley via towable and in particular pop-ups) because that number escapes me but I believe it was about even with people leaving the market. However, at that time, Boomers were still comprising a large portion of the RV market. The new growth that is being seen is in the lightweight towables due to a mix of lighter materials being used by RV manufactureds thus making larger towables and more powerful non-truck vehicles (X-cers and SUVs) allowing people to enter the RV market without having to also purchase a dedicated vehicle to pull the towable (ie trucks). I haven't read the OPs article yet but will, but in doing the math, as the baby boomers continue to age and exit the market (those boomers born in '57 are now 61+ and pushing closer to what is said to be about the time people exit the market) they will in increasingly larger numbers every year. Even if we agree that maybe that 65 mark is now more like 68 (in 2019), that means there is a large portion of our market looking to exit in the next 5-8 years. Conversely, there does not appear to be enough of the younger generations (Xers and Millenials) to make up the delta, although they are coming into the market through new ways, such as rentals and then moving to a towable. But the largest data point I saw was Xers and millenials do not have enough time to camp due to how kids engage in activities (apparently it is significantly different than how I was raised) in today's society. We even have a post by Mififield posing the question and citing kids activities are pulling them from the RV lifestyle. Plus, my research indicates the median RV owner household income is about $70K+. That is far higher then I expected. I thought it would be $45-55K. I have not for data indicating the median household income of Xers or mellenials. But being an Xer myself, I make an assumption its not $90K+, but it could be. Being a TT owner as well, I also know this is not a cheap hobby but at that level ($70K), I think the RV industry as a whole may push people out of the market due to the high prices of campers, services, and current camp ground unavailability. This could be some of the reasons why we see these newer smaller (yet bigger than pop-ups) and relatively cheaper towables emerge onto the scene. This may also be why we see the craftsmanship be what it is since the RV manufacturers have to keep towables at a modest level to keep them affordable. (Those last parts are my theories). The one short-coming that hasn't been shored up is the campground availability (which is why I'm looking at this) but I think that's going increase in about 5-8 years as the Boomers retire out of the market and not a coresponding increase of new emergents into the market. So there's a jump in the RV indusrty to capitalize on the continued boom despite the manufacture decrease in products (as seen in the same time as last year). I'm traveling with work with now and I do not have a good list of my references but I'll post them when I get a chance.

Please feel free to punch me in the head and poke holes or add to where you think I'm short sided. My research isn't complete, I still have my final semester to finish this but this is some of what I have on the RV trend and manufacturing side, which in my opinion drives the RV campground portion of the industry.

Cheers,
-Andy

[ajk170]

After reading that article, I think it's left out some key pieces of data and it's written to support a recessionist narrative. There is some truth to the article for sure but it's not very thorough. You can go back to the 2005 University of Michigan Consumer Surveys and see that it too showed strong growth in the industry and suggested continued strong growth and that was prior to the 2008 collapse. This article does not cite were it pulled its data from when its states that the RV industry shows a downturn prior to every recession. So that would be interesting to know and read how they make that analysis. But the University of Michigan Survey's were sponsored by RVIA so there is a need to play down the bad and play-up the good with any kind of sponsored survey.

I submit that the RV manufacturing portion of the industry has a much bigger problem to overcome in the way of bringing new people into the market to be to counterbalance to the exiting Baby Boomers from the market than any recession that naysayers are currently touting as the next doomsday.

[German Shepherd Guy]

AJK170:
Never considered a scholarly study of RVing.


Me, i just like to go and to dog shows.


BUT, that was a great post.


Oak

[B-O-B'03]

Having just crossed the 65 threshold myself I am looking forward to retiring... but not from camping... I hope to be doing even more of it, until I am physically unable.

I thought that was the whole goal of retirement... doing the things that work always seemed to get in the way of?

-Brian

[JRTJH]

When I did my thesis and dissertation, the statistician I hired for both works started the initial interview with this question: Are you trying to prove your thesis question or disprove it?

Statistics can be manipulated easily. As an example, The stat that "people are getting out of camping at around 69 years of age. What they don't say is that 40% of people die within 3 years of age 70, so "naturally" those people are going to stop camping.... I know, I know, that's morbid, but without a clear understanding of the statistics used and how they apply to reality, they are just as suspect as they are reality.

Here's my "take on RV futures" (I'd suppose it's just as valid as anyone else's take:

When times are good, people spend money on fun things, when times are not so good, people tend to hang onto their money and are reluctant to spend for large purchases.... It's more related to security and needs than to statistical studies about what age people stop camping....

I'm not suggesting that studies aren't important or that this one is not valid, rather I'm suggesting that depending on who did the study and for what purpose, the results can easily reflect any or both sides of the question.

[Ken / Claudia]

I do not know about sales numbers, but my view is RV users come in 3 different categories with some over lap. Full timers who just park and live in a RV. Travelers who live in them but travel full/part time. And last campers, who use a RV a few times a year. So, is some of that user group getting bigger/smaller etc. or is the whole RV industry slowing?
Around here in the last 10 years or so, the smaller TTs and R-pod type of tiny TT are seen in big numbers. I think I have seen around 6 to 10 different makes of the newer tiny trailers.
Another new thing here not seen in the past is roof mounted tents. on SUVs and in pickup bed racks. Lots of those on the freeways. Although not a RV, these look like younger people that are camping that way instead of a ground staked tent. Some may become RVers as they have families.
I also forgot another type of RV, nowadays I am seeing cargo box trailers that have been home made into RVs and those are off the radar. Last Elk season I seen about half of about 40 nearby camp sites were using a cargo trailer as a RV. Until maybe 8 to 10 years ago those were rare. Now more every year.

[Fishsizzle]

I used to think RVs were a good indicator of an eminent recession, but now I just see saturation, followed by greed.

RVs are just flat expensive, and they are EVERYWHERE! Our once “secret” spots are pretty much gone with the advent of Instagram.

And I agree, I see a lot of makeshift trailers and even more sprinters that people just throw some plywood bed in, rooftop tents etc.

Last recession, my wife and I cleaned, mowed, plowed foreclosed homes to get by. I could tell you to the day when I knew we were in rebound mode, and it was on its way to be over. And I can tell you that the foreclosure maintenance people are calling me again to service homes. Thank God we don’t have to do that anymore, won’t say ever again because who knows.

[slman]

In our office, the lunch time talk is repeating an earlier comment.
1) High Price of Campgrounds.
2) Most homes today esp. newer, have to RV space on the side.
3) Storage Fees
4) Cost of Tow Vehicle, unless you are retired.

Reasonable Cost, ( golden days) of RVing are over by our break time discussions. Younger workers saying, they are passing on RV ownership.

[CaptnJohn]

Just remember there is a new congressman that has a degree in economics. Listen to her ideas.

[travelin texans]

Originally Posted by slman

In our office, the lunch time talk is repeating an earlier comment.
1) High Price of Campgrounds.
2) Most homes today esp. newer, have to RV space on the side.
3) Storage Fees
4) Cost of Tow Vehicle, unless you are retired.

Reasonable Cost, ( golden days) of RVing are over by our break time discussions. Younger workers saying, they are passing on RV ownership.

Your younger lunch room crowd sound like my kids. They want to do the RV thing, but they want to start with the top of the line truck & RV all with only one income.
Like most on here, we started in tents to a popup to a very well used TT from my in-laws to a better used 5th wheel to finally retiring full-time in a couple different very nice 5th wheels. In 46 years together we both had full-time jobs with several part-time jobs along the way also.

[RickReichert]

The trailer market would increase by one unit if any manufacturer made a 24 foot 5th wheel like my 2001 Komfort 22FS. I just can't see buying a bloated behemoth. Campsites aren't getting any larger, either.

[JRTJH]

Originally Posted by RickReichert

The trailer market would increase by one unit if any manufacturer made a 24 foot 5th wheel like my 2001 Komfort 22FS. I just can't see buying a bloated behemoth. Campsites aren't getting any larger, either.

Just like everything else that's marketed to the "growing American population" (pun intended), from hamburgers which used to be 10 patties to the pound and now are 1/3 pound burgers to "super-size or economy size" products.... When was the last time you saw an 8 ounce coke?????

[Mad Cow]

Originally Posted by JRTJH

When I did my thesis and dissertation, the statistician I hired for both works started the initial interview with this question: Are you trying to prove your thesis question or disprove it?

Statistics can be manipulated easily. As an example, The stat that "people are getting out of camping at around 69 years of age. What they don't say is that 40% of people die within 3 years of age 70, so "naturally" those people are going to stop camping.... I know, I know, that's morbid, but without a clear understanding of the statistics used and how they apply to reality, they are just as suspect as they are reality.

Here's my "take on RV futures" (I'd suppose it's just as valid as anyone else's take:

When times are good, people spend money on fun things, when times are not so good, people tend to hang onto their money and are reluctant to spend for large purchases.... It's more related to security and needs than to statistical studies about what age people stop camping....

I'm not suggesting that studies aren't important or that this one is not valid, rather I'm suggesting that depending on who did the study and for what purpose, the results can easily reflect any or both sides of the question.

Glad I am not in those stats. I won’t be thru with commercial trucking till age 70, let alone.be out of RV’ing.

[gearhead]

I think it's all over for the under 40 crowd. Many do not want to be labelled with "conspicuous consumption". A big behemoth Rv is the last thing they want to be seen in. A tent, a pod trailer, rooftop tent on a crossover, maybe. But jump on an airplane and go to Ireland or Thailand or Boston? Sure.
I'm 68. I figure I might have 6-7 years left to RV. Doubt I will have many buyers when I hang up the keys.

[sourdough]

You know, I watched this thread and was just going to "let it go" because the original link was obviously biased. But,

RV sales are going down, as they should and it was obvious they would. Recession, no. Lifestyle changes due to generational changes brought on by...?? Yes. When the baby boomers exit the market as we age there aren't the numbers of "millennials", "gen x" or whatever they call them now to replace them...period. Add to that the desire of more and more to live in a city "compound" where they have so "many amenities" without having to do anything....it's sad.

As one post said we are now inundated with the newer generation truly believing that they should be able to have all that life has to offer and never contribute....and envy anyone that has those things without any thought of how hard they worked and all the sacrifices they made to get there.

I have kids/grandkids that would love to camp; they like that idea but trying to sit around a campfire...."it's too much trouble to cut wood and clean up". Investing in a money pit like an RV? It would cut down on their ability to "hang out" in big city restaurants along with other "city" activities. This is where the majority of younger folks are headed simply due to what they are being taught and exposed to. It's sad to me and disheartening for our future but it is what it is.

So, is the RV industry going to have a recession? I have no doubt. Is it because of Trump or political direction? Not at all. It is inevitable. ....

[travelin texans]

Originally Posted by sourdough

You know, I watched this thread and was just going to "let it go" because the original link was obviously biased. But,

RV sales are going down, as they should and it was obvious they would. Recession, no. Lifestyle changes due to generational changes brought on by...?? Yes. When the baby boomers exit the market as we age there aren't the numbers of "millennials", "gen x" or whatever they call them now to replace them...period. Add to that the desire of more and more to live in a city "compound" where they have so "many amenities" without having to do anything....it's sad.

As one post said we are now inundated with the newer generation truly believing that they should be able to have all that life has to offer and never contribute....and envy anyone that has those things without any thought of how hard they worked and all the sacrifices they made to get there.

I have kids/grandkids that would love to camp; they like that idea but trying to sit around a campfire...."it's too much trouble to cut wood and clean up". Investing in a money pit like an RV? It would cut down on their ability to "hang out" in big city restaurants along with other "city" activities. This is where the majority of younger folks are headed simply due to what they are being taught and exposed to. It's sad to me and disheartening for our future but it is what it is.

So, is the RV industry going to have a recession? I have no doubt. Is it because of Trump or political direction? Not at all. It is inevitable. ....

Well said Danny!
That's how I wanted to say it, but couldn't get it typed out as eloquent as you did.